3 oil stocks to watch after Trump's raid in Venezuela

It’s no secret that Venezuela holds some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but what’s less well known is that the country’s oil inventory has been hollowed out by years of heavy sanctions, underinvestment, and government mismanagement.

Now, with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro captured by U.S. forces in a deadly raid on Saturday, the financial markets are already eyeing an oil repricing from a Venezuela supply rebound. That should favor U.S. energy companies in a country with 303 billion barrels of oil reserves, roughly 17% of the world's total.

Already, the market is heating up after President Donald Trump said the U.S. is taking control of the Venezuelan oil market, with the news triggering a January 5 midday 750-point boost in the Dow Jones Index and crude oil contracts up 1.4%, as measured by the Crude Oil Continuous Contract.

Even so, Wall Street analysts advise taking a long-term view of oil stocks in the wake of Trump's raid, as experts, Democratic lawmakers, and the UN question its legality.

"It will take tens of billions of dollars in investment and at least a decade of Western oil majors committing to the country," noted Peter McNally, global head of sector analysts at the investment research firm Third Bridge, in a new research note.

In the meantime, which oil stocks make the most sense in that emerging environment? These energy plays come to mind.

Chevron (CVX)

Five-day share performance: 8.60%

Chevron $CVX shares are trading up 5.2% in Monday trading, which is no shocker, given CVX is the only big-name U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela. Chevron is also the second-largest oil company in the U.S., generating three million barrels of oil daily with a $3.14 billion market cap.

More of a producer than a rebuilder, Chevron has the muscle and the geographical leverage to immediately capitalize on Venezuela’s energy industry rebuild, as it’s already drilling there.

“Chevron’s existing footprint could mean it is best positioned to benefit from more opportunity,” stated TD Cowen analyst Menno Hulshof in a new research note. “(Chevron has) maintained a license from the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control to produce and export crude from existing [Venezuelan] assets since [the fourth quarter of 2022.”

Since then, Chevron has averaged about 200,000 barrels of oil from Venezuela, Cowens said, making CVX an obvious frontrunner in the post-Maduro oil derby.

Valero (VLO)

Five-day share performance: 8.80%

The “Venezuela oil shift” is as much about where barrels are transported as how many barrels get produced, and that’s a scenario that should benefit San Antonio, Texas-based Valero $VLO. The refinery giant, which excels at refining heavy crude oil, should benefit from a newly aligned Venezuelan government that will allow it to access the discounted heavy, sour crude oil Venezuela produces in abundance.

Valero, which has a long history of importing Venezuelan oil (bringing in about 70,000 barrels to the U.S. in 2025), certainly has the capacity to enter the Venezuelan market, as it can handle up to 3.2 million barrels per day. Valero also has regional connections that should help secure a good pricing deal in a refiner-friendly Venezuelan oil market, which should add more value to VLO shares.

Add in the likelihood of rising availability of Venezuelan heavy crude oil and a 2.5% dividend that should appeal to income-minded investors, VLO is worth a closer look, and sooner rather than later.

ConocoPhillips (COP)

Five-day share performance: 6.0%

ConocoPhillips $COP was up as high as 6.0% in Monday trading, buoyed by the Venezuela geopolitical jolt. The Houston, Tex.-based oil producer doesn’t have active oil operations in the country, but it could receive billions of dollars in compensation from expropriated funds.

That scenario stemmed from a World Bank’s International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) ruling that Venezuela, under former president Hugo Chavez, unlawfully expropriated ConocoPhillips’ assets, ordering Venezuela to pay up. With Chavez long gone and Maduro in a New York City jail, the odds of a U.S.-friendly government in Caracas paying COP its $8.7 billion award, plus interest, just grew larger, with a potential $20 billion payout ceiling.

Analysts have taken note, with Citi and Bernstein affirming Buy ratings on COP shares on January 5, and current investors have stacked up some cash over the past five years. Investors who bought $100 shares of COP stock five years ago have seen their shares rise to $244.37 as of early January.

Two oil funds to wager on with Venezuela in mind

If you’re looking for less risk but still want some bang for your buck, kick some tires on United States Oil Fund (USO) and ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO). 

Both funds focus on crude oil investments, with USO leveraging futures contracts for West Texas Intermediate crude oil and UCO, which closely tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices.