American Express and Mastercard post strong earnings. But political risks loom large

By almost any operational measure, it was a good quarter and a good year for the world's payments giants. Still, shares of Mastercard $MA and American Express $AXP fell heading into Friday’s market open — outpacing the 0.5% fall in S&P 500 futures.

The worry appears to be driven not by the companies themselves, or their results, but rather the macro environment, with the White House floating a potential 10% cap on credit-card rates. Even as there is little legal basis for the executive branch to singlehandedly implement a cap, anxiety persists.

Here's what to know.

Inside the quarter

Both Mastercard and American Express reported double-digit revenue growth, margins growing fatter, and strong consumer spending even as U.S. credit card debt has climbed to record highs and delinquency rates are slowly creeping up across the industry.

Mastercard on Thursday reported a fourth-quarter net revenue jump of 18% year over the same period in 2024 — at least on a non-GAAP basis — which translated into 22% net income growth. Expenses stayed contained as the company’s dollar volumes grew across the world, with 4% U.S. growth and 9% outside the U.S, alongside strong growth in the company’s high-margin services business. Adjusted earnings per share jumped 25%, helped along by aggressive share repurchases.

“The overall macroeconomic environment is supportive and we continue to see healthy consumer and business spending,” CEO Michael Miebach said in the company's earnings release, pointing to an equally promising environment in 2026. Meanwhile, Mastercard’s plan to lay off 4% of its workforce joins a long list of prestige employers who are growing profits but nevertheless cutting staff.

American Express on Friday morning reported 10% revenue growth for the fourth quarter and 15% earnings-per-share growth — the latter also helped along by buybacks.

Card member spending rose 9% in the fourth quarter, powered as usual by higher-income customers, while credit metrics remained “best-in-class” despite a broader rise in consumer stress. The company guided to another year of near-double-digit revenue growth in 2026 and announced a 16% dividend increase. In its earnings presentation, American Express also touted technological developments, including generative AI and “agentic commerce” initiatives such as its Dining Companion.

Behind the selloff

Some of the morning’s stock selloff may have to do with valuation and positioning; both stocks entered 2026 at or near record highs. Another portion may be sheer political anxiety.

With U.S. credit card balances above $1.2 trillion and interest rates still north of 20% for many borrowers, investors are increasingly sensitive to the optics — perhaps even afraid of attracting negative attention, from the White House or otherwise.