Apple's march to a $4 trillion market cap is gaining steam ahead of earnings

The only thing thinner than Apple $AAPL’s new iPhone is the air above its stock chart. Apple’s valuation is hovering around $3.86 trillion, putting $4 trillion trillion squarely in sight as investors price in a hotter iPhone cycle, a services cash machine, and the most dependable buyback in corporate history. The number may feel absurd on its face, but Apple’s route there doesn’t — it’s the company’s old playbook executed with unnerving consistency. 

Nvidia $NVDA is still the lone member of the $4 trillion club. Microsoft $MSFT flirted with it after its blockbuster July quarter but has since drifted back to around $3.89 trillion. Apple, meanwhile, is up roughly 6% this year — a modest climb for a company brushing up against history.

Early iPhone 17 demand is the spark. Counterpoint’s launch-window data show sales in the U.S. and China running about 14% ahead of last year’s iPhone 16, with the base 17 nearly doubling in China — a mix shift that helps both units and sentiment without touching price. This cycle, Apple kept prices steady and added an ultra-thin, titanium-framed “iPhone Air” — which went on sale in China on Wednesday after a short delay — a combo that appears to be working in the world’s two most important smartphone markets.

Services, the company’s quieter empire (think: music, iCloud, app store, and streaming), keep doing the quiet heavy lifting. In the June quarter, Apple posted $94 billion in revenue, up 10% year over year, with Services at a record $27.4 billion and EPS beating expectations at $1.57. That mix — high-margin Services layered on top of hardware — is the compounding story under the hardware headlines and remains Apple’s durability story, especially when iPhone cycles wobble.

Then there’s Apple’s favorite tailwind: capital returns. In May, the board authorized another $100 billion in repurchases — a smaller slug than last year’s record, but still a buyback that meaningfully tightens the float and supports EPS.

Apple Intelligence — the company’s on-device AI features suite announced at WWDC and marginally expanded in September — is rolling across iPhone, iPad, and Mac, giving Apple a defensible, privacy-first angle on AI that’s designed to nudge upgrades without the cloud-spend arms race. Momentum here matters: The more Apple can tie everyday tasks to Apple-only AI, the sturdier the upgrade cycle becomes.

Yes, there are caveats at this rarified air — tariff costs, regulatory sand in the gears, and a disappointing AI rollout that has been particularly cautious in China — but the center of gravity remains the same: iPhone demand, services mix, and disciplined cash returns. The next checkpoint is earnings on Oct. 30, when Apple will have to prove that early iPhone 17 heat is translating into holiday-quarter guidance — and that Apple Intelligence is more than a marketing flourish. If those pieces all hold, a $4 trillion close won’t feel like a moonshot so much as the next line on a very Apple-looking timeline.