ASML raised its 2026 sales forecast after AI-driven chip demand beat expectations

ASML $ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast after first-quarter results beat expectations, with the company citing AI-driven chip demand that it said is outpacing available supply.

The Veldhoven, Netherlands-based company now expects net sales of €36 billion to €40 billion for 2026, compared with a previous range of €34 billion to €39 billion, according to a press release published April 15. Against analyst consensus figures compiled by CNBC, the quarter's €8.8 billion in net sales topped the €8.5 billion forecast, and net income of €2.8 billion cleared the €2.5 billion estimate.

"Demand for chips is outpacing supply," ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement. "Our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond, supported by long-term agreements with their customers." In a video released with the results, Fouquet added that the company expects "the supply will not meet the demand for the foreseeable future."

For the second quarter, ASML guided net sales of €8.4 billion to €9.0 billion, with a gross margin between 51% and 52%. Full-year gross margin guidance is 51% to 53%. Fouquet said the guidance range accounts for potential outcomes from ongoing export control discussions.

Memory chip demand was a notable driver in the quarter. Memory-related purchases made up 51% of new-tool net sales during the quarter, a sharp jump from 30% in the preceding period, according to Bloomberg. Geographically, South Korea led all markets at 45% of sales, with Taiwan contributing 23%. China's share of net system sales retreated to 19%, less than half the 36% it held in the final quarter of 2025.

Turning to output, Reuters reported that CFO Roger Dassen put the 2026 shipment target for low-NA EUV machines at 60 units, a roughly 25% increase over 2025 volumes, with manufacturing capacity positioned to reach at least 80 units the following year.

ASML faces geopolitical risk in China, where it has never been permitted to sell its most advanced EUV tools. U.S. lawmakers have proposed legislation, called the MATCH Act, that would extend restrictions to ASML's less-advanced deep ultraviolet immersion machines as well. China is still projected to account for roughly 20% of revenue in 2026, Dassen indicated, though a scenario in which new controls take effect could pull results to the lower bound of the company's guidance range; he noted on the post-earnings call that displaced Chinese demand might find a home elsewhere, given current market conditions, according to Reuters.

ASML counts TSMC $TSM among its top customers, and the Taiwanese chipmaker reported record first-quarter revenue last week, driven by orders from Apple $AAPL and Nvidia $NVDA. TSMC has committed up to $56 billion in capital expenditures for the year, while SK Hynix, the South Korean memory specialist, has struck a multiyear agreement with ASML worth roughly $8 billion that extends into 2027, according to Bloomberg.

ASML stock has risen 40% this year. The company also said it purchased about €1.1 billion worth of its own stock in the first quarter under its 2026–2028 buyback program, and intends to declare a total dividend of €7.50 per ordinary share for 2025, a 17% increase from 2024.