Black Friday is dying. Here's what's killing it — and what's replacing it

There’s a good case to be made that Black Friday, as a holiday retail powerhouse, is losing its luster. While not dead yet, the day is showing major signs of wear and tear.

In 2025, only 20% of consumers plan to start their holiday shopping on Black Friday weekend, with 59% starting earlier and 22% shopping after or at the last minute, according to cross-channel marketing platform Cordial.  

"Black Friday’s dominance has waned,” said Rob Garf, head of strategy and insights at Cordial. Retailers hoping for an early surge are often caught in a game of “discount chicken, waiting for consumers to act as consumers wait for deeper price cuts. The data tells us the 'Black Friday blitz' strategy is misaligned with how most consumers shop today.”

4 Black Friday buzz killers tell the tale

Multiple factors have brought Black Friday to its knees in 2025. Here’s a snapshot.

AI is taking the reins

According to global clickstream data provider Datos, AI-driven discovery is rising fast. “The share of visits coming from AI chat platforms nearly doubled year-over-year (from 1–4% in 2024 to 5–8% in 2025),” the company said in a new report. “Over 55% of AI-generated prompts leading to Amazon contained purchase intent, showing that predictive, conversational search is already influencing purchase decisions.”

Dynamic pricing has exploded

Retail experts say dynamic pricing and early “soft launch” discounts now replace one-day blowouts.

“The prevalence of e-commerce has made deals and discounts more accessible and routine, causing marquee events like Black Friday to weaken,” said Greg Zakowicz, a retail analyst at Omnisend. “Because shoppers no longer have to wait for a singular day to take advantage of sales, their purchasing has become spread throughout the season.”

Some retailers may view this as a negative, but Zakowicz sees the glass as half full. “One benefit is that because purchases are spread out, consumers have a greater likelihood of exceeding their gift budget,” he noted.

Retailers are leveraging tech to drive customer traffic and sales

The rise of e-commerce and logistics automation has also accelerated the decline of the traditional doorbuster era.

“With warehouse automation and smart routing, retailers can meet massive online demand without the in-store rush,” said Sudip Mazumder, retail industry lead at Publicis Sapient, a technology and digital information company. “Physical stores have become fulfillment hubs rather than battlegrounds for bargain hunters, reflecting a broader transformation of retail from store-centered hype to data-driven precision.”

Retailers have also reengineered their Black Friday playbook, trading volume-driven promotions for supply-chain-led profitability,” Mazumder noted. “AI now drives discounting, clearing inventory with minimal markdowns and maximizing margins,” he said. “Success is no longer about foot traffic but about how efficiently retailers manage fulfillment and inventory.”

By smoothing demand and optimizing logistics, retailers “are avoiding costly last-minute shipping crunches and sustaining profits across a longer holiday season,” Mazumder added.

Expanded loyalty programs are expanding shopping timelines

Retailers have figured out that pouring resources into a single shopping day pales in comparison to offering regular customer discounts and deals.

“More and more brands are picking their own sales windows and building rituals around membership,” said Charlie Casey, CEO and co-founder of LoyaltyLion, an e-commerce customer loyalty and engagement company.

For example, Casey cited skincare services company Inkey List, which runs “Insiders Week” with member-only pricing, double points, scratch cards, and tiered freebies. “That week delivered loyalty’s highest weekly contribution to revenue at 41%, with members spending three-times more and program sign-ups more than doubling,” Casey said. “It’s Amazon-Prime logic applied to your own calendar, away from the Black Friday and Cyber Monday dogfight.”

Casey said he’s also seeing members-only bundles and rolling perks that hit monthly. “The effect is the same as a perpetual 'Cyber Month,' but curated for your base rather than a one-day stampede,” he noted. “When paired with zero-party data, this can be personalized so it feels special.”

Is this holiday goose cooked for good?

By and large, the global retail sector is moving toward a continuous commerce model rather than banner shopping days.

“Instead of one major sales day, shoppers see a steady flow of personalized offers, loyalty rewards, and smaller, data-driven promotions throughout the season,” said Bess Devenow, senior manager of strategic communications and insights at Vantage. “While consumers may be more discerning while shopping this year, the holidays will remain a resilient retail ritual, one of the few times when emotion, tradition, and commerce intersect in a way that defines consumer behavior year after year.”

Devenow said that Black Friday can still exist as a helpful reminder on when and how to get deals and streamline the gift-buying process, but not as a singular, one-day event.

“This holiday season will favor retailers who make shopping feel seamless, personalized, and genuinely helpful from October through late December,” she said. “The excitement may have shifted, but the spirit of value hunting for consumers is still very much alive.”

Other retail experts say the traditional version of Black Friday, defined by one-day doorbusters and crowded stores, has largely run its course.

“It no longer fits how consumers shop,” said Ben Hussey, co-CEO at Katana Cloud Inventory, a business processes software company. “However, the event itself remains relevant in a new form. Black Friday continues to be one of the season’s highest-selling periods, but now functions as part of a longer, digitally driven cycle.”

Retailers are still planning for the late-November surge, but the strategy has changed. “Now, the emphasis has shifted toward dynamic pricing, online convenience, and maintaining profitability through smarter supply chain management,” Hussey noted.