Consumer confidence in the economy hits the lowest level since April

Consumers’ outlook on the economy is tanking over inflation and job market concerns. 

Consumer confidence dropped by 3.6 points in September to a level of 94.2 out of 100, its lowest level since April, according to new data from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. 

Consumers' outlook on business and labor market conditions saw a decline of 7 points — its largest drop in a year — while their shorter-term outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions saw a smaller drop of 1.3 points to 73.4. 

Although this marker had a smaller drop compared to other measures, a level below 80 “typically signals a recession,” the report said, and consumers' outlook for this metric has been under 80 since February. Consumers that think a recession is very likely in the next year jumped to its highest level since May, with more also reporting they thought the economy was already in a recession. 

“Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at the Conference Board. “This is consistent with the decline in job openings.”

The job market has been in a slump for months. In August, just 22,000 new jobs were added — significantly lower than economists’ projections of 75,000 new roles. On the other hand, new unemployment claims dropped last week, although continuing claims are largely unchanged. September’s job report is unlikely to come through as planned due to a more-than-likely government shutdown that will postpone the release of economic data. 

Just 26.9% of respondents to the survey said jobs were “plentiful,” compared to 30.2% in August. About 19% said jobs were “hard to get” — the same rate from August. Consumers' mentions of jobs and employment in their write-in answers reached a “level unseen since August 2024,” the report said, noting the responses were “mostly negative.”

Guichard said inflation and prices is the “main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy,” although their 12-month inflation expectations dropped slightly in September. Still, that number remains above consumers’ expectations at the end of 2024. 

“References to tariffs declined this month, but remained elevated and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices,” Guichard added. 

On top of job market and inflation concerns, consumers’ outlook on their current financial situation saw the biggest one-month drop since the Board began collecting this measure in July 2022, it said.