There's one renewable that Trump won't cut

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When the Trump administration dismantled tax credits for clean energy, one renewable source escaped the cuts. Geothermal energy, the little-known underdog, has become the unexpected winner in Trump's reshaped energy landscape.

The contrast is stark. Tax credits for solar and wind projects were slashed, with most required to begin operation by summer 2027 to qualify. But geothermal projects can start construction as late as 2033 and still claim full federal tax benefits. The industry's investment and production tax credits will remain intact through 2036, giving developers nearly a decade of policy certainty that the rest of the renewables industry can only dream about.

It speaks Trump's language better than other clean energy

Geothermal energy taps heat from deep underground to generate electricity. For over a century, the technology only worked in rare locations with naturally occurring hot water reservoirs, like Iceland's geysers and hot springs. 

But enhanced geothermal systems change that equation by borrowing fracking techniques from the oil industry. Companies now pump water more than a mile underground through fractured granite, where it heats up and returns to the surface hot enough to drive turbines. The innovation means geothermal could work almost anywhere, not just in geologically lucky spots.

The fracking connection has helped. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, formerly CEO of fracking company Liberty Energy, championed geothermal during budget negotiations. His former company invested millions in Fervo Energy, the buzzy geothermal startup backed by Bill Gates and Google $GOOGL that's leading the sector's revival.

President Trump declared an "energy emergency" on his first day back in office, but the list of prioritized domestic resources told the real story. Alongside oil, gas, and coal sat geothermal heat, the one renewable source. Trump's Interior Department has since fast-tracked three Nevada geothermal projects through environmental reviews that normally take a year or more, slashing approval times to just 14 days for smaller projects and 28 days for complex ones.

Even with favorable treatment, building a geothermal plant still costs around $6,000 per kilowatt of capacity, compared to $800 to $1,000 for natural gas plants. But when you factor in fuel costs over time, especially with natural gas prices fluctuating and construction costs for gas plants climbing to $3,000 per kilowatt due to AI-driven demand, the economics start favoring geothermal.

Google and Meta $META have both signed geothermal deals to fuel their growing data center operations. Unlike solar panels and wind turbines that depend on weather, geothermal provides constant power around the clock. For AI companies desperate for reliable electricity, that reliability is worth paying for. 

The Department of Energy projects geothermal could reach 300 gigawatts of capacity by 2050, up from today’s less than four gigawatts, and more than triple the current output of America's nuclear fleet. 

The International Energy Agency estimates global geothermal capacity could hit 800 gigawatts by mid-century, potentially meeting 15% of worldwide electricity demand growth. Nevada alone could produce power equivalent to 10% of current U.S. electricity generation, according to a recent U.S. Geological Survey analysis of the Great Basin region.

But serious obstacles could still derail the boom

Despite favorable treatment compared to other renewables, geothermal faces headwinds from Trump's broader policy agenda. New tariffs on steel and aluminum have increased costs for drilling equipment and heat exchangers.

Provisions restricting Chinese companies from accessing tax credits create additional compliance burdens that make investors nervous. Conservation groups have raised concerns about the expedited permitting process, arguing that 14-day environmental reviews sidestep critical protections. Research has shown geothermal infrastructure can negatively impact greater sage-grouse populations in nearby breeding grounds, the kind of environmental tradeoff that warrants careful study rather than rubber-stamp approval.

The talent pipeline presents another challenge. With oil, gas, and mining companies competing for the same geologists and drilling engineers, the geothermal industry struggles to attract sufficient expertise. Only about 265,000 geoscientists work across all U.S. industries, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with geology programs typically enrolling just 60 to 70 students even at large universities.

Still, for an industry that has struggled for decades to escape niche status, the current political moment represents unprecedented opportunity. Whether that support translates into the massive buildout optimists envision depends on technology continuing to improve and costs continuing to fall. For now, though, geothermal stands alone as the renewable energy source Trump's team actively wants to expand.