The dollar is the early winner of the Iran war

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The Third Persian Gulf War is nearing the end of its first month and there’s still no end in sight to the conflict, even as President Donald Trump dangles a possible ceasefire with Iran. There’s one early winner from the hostilities: the greenback.

The launch of an aggressive military campaign from the U.S. and Israel against Iran provoked a historic energy shock and sent oil prices on a rollercoaster ride for much of March. Brent crude settled at just over $100 per barrel on Tuesday, significantly elevated compared to the pre-war price of $65. 

Over the past month, investors reached for the dollar in a sign of renewed confidence in its ability to shelter portfolios against stretches of uncertainty, panic, and conflict.

“The greenback stands out as the currency that appears best positioned to continue gaining ground should the conflict endure and oil supply remain disrupted,” said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at global financial services firm Ebury, said in a report published Monday.

Compared to a basket of peer currencies, the dollar rallied and regained about 2% of its value against the Euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen. I observed a similar trend during a recent visit to the Peruvian capital of Lima, where the dollar gained 5% against the local currency, the Nuevo Sol.

Meanwhile, gold has been an atrocious shield for capital, falling 16% since the start of the war to trade at roughly $4,400 per ounce in recent days  — the lowest level so far this year. Gold dropped for 10 days in a row in its longest losing streak ever recorded. Silver prices haven’t fared better either.

Ryan observed the U.S.’s position as a net exporter of oil and liquefied natural gas had provided armor for its economy to withstand shocks, instilling faith among investors that it can benefit from a spike in energy prices. (It’s a different story for everyday Americans paying close to $4 for a gallon of gas.)

The dollar’s rally, though, may be fleeting. Ebury projected “a fairly rapid unwinding in safe-haven flows” that include a retreat from the dollar once the Iran War is over. 

Step aside, “Sell America”

The Iran War has virtually shuttered commercial vessels from traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway accounting for one-fifth of all oil and natural gas shipping. The hit to energy markets coincided with the dollar finding its footing among investors once again.

Since Trump’s return to the White House last year and the ensuing trade wars, many investors around the world have hedged their bets on U.S. assets, including the dollar, and fortified their financial portfolios against his chaotic approach to governing. 

In 2025, the dollar shed about 10% of its value, while gold and silver were hot investments with double-digit percentage gains. The “Sell America” trade was even coined to illustrate the fresh interest in investment circles to diversify portfolios, short of the drastic step of bailing on U.S. financial assets and Treasury bonds entirely.

Nevertheless, the dollar does have room to fall. Goldman Sachs $GS analysts said in a Tuesday note that if market concerns shift to sluggish growth rather than elevated inflation, it would “likely temper broad dollar appreciation.”

“Sell America” is stepping aside for “Buy America” among financiers, at least for the time being. Whether it remains a popular trade will depend on how much longer missiles are falling in the Middle East.