Meta is closing in on Google's title as the world's largest digital ad platform

Meta $META is expected to surpass Google $GOOGL as the world's leading digital advertising business this year, according to Emarketer — the first time the social media company has held that position.

Emarketer's projections put Meta's net ad revenue at $243.46 billion this year, compared with $239.54 billion for Google — a gap that reflects figures calculated after subtracting traffic costs and content acquisition fees, among them payments Google makes to publishers and other partners. According to Emarketer, the gap between the two companies has never been as small in the firm's 14 years of tracking the digital ad market.

Meta's global ad revenue growth is projected to accelerate to 24.1% this year, up from 22.1% in 2025, while Google's growth rate is expected to hold flat at 11.9%, according to The Wall Street Journal. Meta has benefited from the expansion of its short-form video format Reels, which has drawn more advertisers, as well as AI tools that have improved ad targeting and performance across its platforms.

According to Max Willens, a principal analyst at Emarketer, the company took a deliberately measured approach — waiting until Reels, the microblogging platform Threads, and the WhatsApp messaging service had developed deep, habitual user bases before monetizing them through ads, a strategy he described as showing "incredible patience." Reels watch time in the U.S. climbed more than 30% year over year in the most recent quarter, a gain the company attributed to its AI recommendation system, which in turn creates more inventory for ads. Meta has also projected that Reels will hit a $50 billion revenue run rate over the coming year, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Google's ad business faces headwinds on multiple fronts. Emarketer data show Google's slice of the U.S. search ad market dipping to 48.5% this year, marking the first sub-50% reading in more than ten years. Competitive pressure is coming from multiple directions: Amazon $AMZN has been capturing a growing share of product-related queries, while newer entrants such as OpenAI and TikTok are increasingly positioning themselves as search alternatives. YouTube Premium, while a significant subscription revenue source, also limits the number of users Google can monetize through ads.

Even as leadership of the digital ad market changes hands, concentration at the top is intensifying rather than easing. Emarketer projects the combined share of Meta, Google, and Amazon will climb to 62.3% of global digital advertising this year, up from 59.9% in 2025 — a sign that a small group of platforms is extending its collective hold on the industry.

Meta's ad dominance has been underwriting an aggressive capital investment strategy, with the company budgeting $115 billion to $135 billion in capital expenditure for 2026 — almost double the $72.2 billion it spent in 2025. The buildout is focused on AI infrastructure, including data centers and third-party cloud capacity. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has framed the spending as essential to the company's long-term ambitions in artificial intelligence, even as ad revenue remains the engine funding that push, accounting for the vast majority of the company's income.

Meta's capital spending is expected to reach $135 billion this year, according to The Journal. Google and Meta both declined to comment.