Microsoft earnings show how high the AI bar has risen

Microsoft $MSFT just did the thing Big Tech keeps promising it can do: spend like the future has a delivery deadline and still put up clean numbers. The company keeps proving that demand for cloud and AI services is real, broad, and growing at scale. But investors are worried about how expensive it is to keep that engine running — and how quickly the payoff will show up where it counts.

In its latest quarter, Microsoft posted $81.3 billion in revenue (up 17%) and $4.14 in non-GAAP EPS (up 24%); analysts were looking for about $3.91 in adjusted EPS on roughly $80.3 billion in revenue. Azure growth stayed hot at 39%, essentially matching expectations. But the stock took a hit anyway, initially sliding more than 7% after hours — because in 2026, “beat” is table stakes and “prove it” is the assignment.

Microsoft pegged capex around $37.5 billion for the quarter, ahead of what the Street had modeled — and investors are still arguing over whether cloud growth is being constrained by capacity or just cooling toward something more normal. The company’s framing is straightforward: AI is diffusing fast, and Microsoft is already selling the picks, shovels, and the permit office.

“We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion, and already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises,” Satya Nadella said in the press release. Amy Hood added the flex Wall Street usually likes: “Microsoft Cloud revenue crossed $50 billion this quarter,” landing at $51.5 billion (up 26%).

Underneath that umbrella, the machine looked sturdy. Productivity and Business Processes brought in $34.1 billion (up 16%), with Microsoft 365 commercial cloud up 17% and Dynamics 365 up 19%. Intelligent Cloud hit $32.9 billion (up 29%), basically a billboard for Azure’s staying power. More Personal Computing was the lone soft patch — $14.3 billion, down 3%, with Xbox content and services down 5%.

And Microsoft returned $12.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks during the quarter, a signal of confidence in the durability of its cash machine. 

But the quarter’s most revealing numbers were the receipts for how physical this boom has become. 

Demand wasn’t a problem, either. Commercial remaining performance obligation jumped 110% to $625 billion, a staggering pile of contracted future revenue that underscored how embedded Microsoft’s services have become. The bill is the problem — or at least the question investors keep asking about. Microsoft’s spending was nearly double the year-earlier level. Property and equipment, net, climbed to $261.1 billion, up more than $56 billion since the end of the prior fiscal year. That’s AI as power, real estate, concrete, copper, and depreciation schedules.

This was another quarter where Microsoft showed it can grow fast while spending even faster — and where the math still feels unresolved.

The earnings optics don’t help. GAAP profit surged, with net income up 60% and GAAP EPS at $5.16, but that figure included $7.6 billion in net gains tied to Microsoft’s OpenAI investment. And that OpenAI relationship is now a little less “exclusive pipeline” and a little more “big customer with its own leverage.” Microsoft agreed last fall to give up its right of first refusal on OpenAI compute, even as OpenAI committed to buying a gigantic block of Azure capacity. That’s great for bookings, but it adds another layer to the “how durable is this advantage?” question sitting under the quarter.

Microsoft can show near-40% Azure growth and a cloud business north of $50 billion a quarter. What it has to show next is that the AI buildout can produce durable operating leverage — and that the frontier it keeps pushing comes with a payoff schedule investors can recognize. Microsoft cleared the bar again. The market is no longer impressed by that alone.