Phoenix, Houston, and other U.S. counties see wages outpace home prices in 2026

Wages are now growing faster than home prices in a majority of U.S. counties — and for buyers who have spent years priced out of the market, the shift carries real weight.

Between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026, paychecks outpaced home price growth in 64% of the 580 counties analyzed by ATTOM, a property data and real estate analytics firm. Average weekly wages grew 6.4% through the third quarter of 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while the national median home price rose 8% since Q1 2024.

Higher wages accelerate the time it takes to save for a down payment, and more critically, a larger income creates flexibility in the debt-to-income ratio, which lenders use to decide whether a borrower qualifies for a mortgage. Even without a meaningful drop in mortgage rates, a higher overall income gives buyers more negotiating leverage, more choices, and more financial confidence heading into a purchase decision.

"Wage growth outpacing home prices in a majority of markets is a positive signal for affordability," ATTOM CEO Rob Barber told Realtor.com. "However, with homeownership costs still elevated in many areas, this improvement may not be enough on its own to bring large numbers of buyers back into the market."

Realtor.com combed through ATTOM's data to find the largest counties with the highest level of wage growth relative to home prices. Here's what's driving wages higher — and what it means for buyers.

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Wage growth: 4.5% | Home price change: -2.9% | Differential: +7.4 percentage points

No other county among the five has closed the gap between wages and home prices as sharply as Arizona's Maricopa.

Maricopa County saw home prices fall 2.9% year over year to $460,000 in Q1 2026, even as wages grew 4.5%. The Phoenix metro has become a magnet for technology companies relocating or expanding from California and other high-cost states, attracting high-income families in the process. Axon, GoDaddy, Honeywell $HON, American Express $AXP, Amazon $AMZN, and Onsemi have all established operations there, creating persistent demand for skilled workers across engineering, logistics, and finance.

"Phoenix has a hot job market," Stacy Miller of Re/Max Fine Properties told Realtor.com.

Arizona State University has helped build a workforce capable of supporting this expansion, producing thousands of graduates in technology and business each year.

Kirk Sides / Houston Chronicle via Getty Images

Wage growth: 3.3% | Home price change: -3.7% | Differential: +7.0 percentage points

Harris County's median home price actually declined 3.7% year-over-year as wages in Greater Houston's core area grew 3.3%. Such wage-growth differentials are the best possible path to affordability a housing market can produce. 

Houston's economy draws its strength from healthcare, oil and gas, and legal services, all sectors that support well-paying jobs across a wide range of skill levels. Rice University and the University of Houston feed a steady pipeline of graduates into those industries as well. 

"The job market remains robust," Laura Mudd, a real estate agent with Douglas Elliman in Houston, told Realtor.com. 

Economists point to Harris County as a model for what wage-led affordability improvement can look like: not just rising incomes in isolation, but falling prices and rising wages working in the same direction at the same time.

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Wage growth: 3.9% | Home price change: -1.7% | Differential: +5.6 percentage points

San Diego County's median home price slipped 1.7% from the prior year. But the local economy's substantial military, defense, and biotechnology sectors helped wages rise 3.9% in the same timeframe. UC San Diego serves as a research and talent engine for much of this activity, drawing federal funding and private investment that sustain high-wage employment across multiple industries. 

Like Los Angeles, San Diego remains expensive in absolute terms, and ownership costs consume a large share of typical household income. But the direction of travel, with prices moderating and wages rising, is what affordability economists watch most closely. Sustained wage growth relative to home prices, even in high-cost markets, allows more buyers to qualify for and sustain a mortgage.

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Wage growth: 3.0% | Home price change: -1.5% | Differential: +4.5 percentage points

The median home price in Los Angeles County fell 1.5% year over year while wages rose 3.0% — a rare convergence in one of the country's most expensive housing markets. The county's economic base spans entertainment, aircraft manufacturing, and private spaceflight, all of which attract high earners and sustain wage growth even as home values cool. 

Buyers still face a steep climb: workers must devote roughly 66% of annualized wages to afford a median-priced home, according to ATTOM. The burden remains unsustainable for many families. But agents on the ground are watching buyer behavior shift. 

"Well-priced homes that don't need work are selling, and homes that are slightly underpriced are being snapped up," Juliette Hohnen of Douglas Elliman told Realtor.com. 

Top-tier universities UCLA and USC help sustain demand for skilled labor by supplying graduates to nearby biotech, aerospace, and finance firms, keeping wage floors elevated even as the broader market cools.

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Wage growth: 4.6% | Home price change: +2.7% | Differential: +1.9 percentage points

Cook County posted a median home price of $305,000 in Q1 2026 for a 2.7% year-over-year increase. But wages climbed faster, rising 4.6% over the same period. Chicago's economic anchors include finance, legal services, and a deep university ecosystem anchored by the University of Chicago and Northwestern, which funnel talent into high-wage industries. 

People who left during the pandemic are also coming back. 

"A lot of people are moving from Florida, saying they'll take snow over hurricanes any day," Matt Laricy, managing broker at Americorp Real Estate, told Realtor.com.

Suburban inventory is tightening, and bidding wars have become common outside the city core. Downtown Chicago, meanwhile, is recording its strongest market activity in five or six years, according to Laricy, proving rising wages are translating into actual purchasing power.