Polymarket says the U.S. raid on Venezuela wasn’t an invasion. Traders aren't buying it

Online prediction market Polymarket is drawing criticism after ruling that the U.S. capture of the Venezuelan authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro does not count as an invasion of the country, a decision that leaves millions of dollars in bets unresolved. 

The company said the operation did not meet the conditions set out in its contract on whether the United States would invade Venezuela. Polymarket’s ruling came after U.S. special forces seized Maduro from his Caracas compound early Saturday. The U.S. raid killed 75 people.

In a statement posted on its website, Polymarket said the contract applies only if the U.S. military “commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela.” It added: “President Trump’s statement that they will ‘run’ Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.” 

The clarification sent prices on the invasion contract sharply lower, with odds falling below 5%. Traders have wagered more than $10.5 million on whether the U.S. would invade Venezuela in 2026, most of it tied to a Jan. 31 deadline, with more contracts running through March and December. Some users placed bets worth tens of thousands of dollars. 

Some users accused Polymarket of changing the meaning of the wager after the fact. A trader using the name Skinner wrote in the platform’s comment section: “Polymarket has descended into sheer arbitrariness. Words are redefined at will, detached from any recognised meaning, and facts are simply ignored. That a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd.” 

The ruling also drew attention to a highly profitable wager placed shortly before Maduro’s capture. An anonymous account spent about $30,000 betting that Maduro would be removed from power by the end of January, a position that briefly showed gains of more than $436,000 after the seizure became public. The account was created in late December and placed a small number of bets, all focused on Venezuela.

The timing of the wagers has raised broader concerns about whether traders are profiting from advance knowledge of government actions. Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of Better Markets, a non-partisan group that advocates for financial reform, told CBS: “This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.”

The issue has reached Capitol Hill. Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres has introduced legislation that would ban insiders from trading on prediction markets using nonpublic information. 

Prediction markets have grown rapidly in the U.S., allowing users to bet on political and economic events. Polymarket recently gained approval to operate legally in the United States but does not hold a license in the U.K. President Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., serves in advisory roles at Polymarket and rival platform Kalshi.