S&P 500 wipes out Iran war losses as peace talk hopes lift stocks

The S&P 500 has fully recovered its Iran war losses, rising more than 2% for the week as investors grew more optimistic about a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Wednesday's session would mark the S&P 500's 10th winning day in 11 if gains hold, with the index adding 0.6%. The Nasdaq $NDAQ Composite rose 1.2%, pushing its run of consecutive gains to 11, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 123 points, or 0.3%.

Oil prices pulled back sharply alongside the equity gains. Brent crude shed roughly 4% to settle near $95 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slid approximately 7% to around $91 — pulling both benchmarks back below the $100 level that had unsettled markets since the conflict choked off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a Fox Business interview on Wednesday, Trump expressed confidence that hostilities are winding down, saying the conflict is "very close to over" and repeating his claim that Iran wants to "make a deal very badly." According to CNBC, a White House official said follow-up talks between the two countries are under consideration, though no date has been set, and the official requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the discussions.

Thomas Martin, a senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, told CNBC that investors who pulled back before the conflict are now returning to the market. He said, "The setup coming into [the war] was that market participants had de-risked to a degree in anticipation that maybe things might get bad, and then as that seems like it's maybe less of a likelihood, they're needing to buy." Martin also noted that stock prices show confidence in a diplomatic solution: "Is there going to be a deal that will allow the Strait of Hormuz to open up and there to be less likelihood of stopping the flow of goods? The market seems to be saying that it thinks there will be."

Not all analysts share that optimism. Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman, in a recent client note, cautioned that historical precedents for peace talks "are not favorable for the view of a quick resolution," pointing to the wide gap between U.S. and Iranian demands — particularly on nuclear activity. Iran has pushed back on American demands with an offer of a five-year nuclear pause that would stop short of forcing Tehran to give up its accumulated enriched uranium, compared with Washington's call for a suspension lasting two decades.

The conflict began on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. Tehran retaliated by targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply. This disruption has been described as the largest oil supply shock in history. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire after Iran agreed to reopen the strait, which caused markets to rise sharply. The truce will expire next week, making negotiations more urgent.

Throughout the conflict, presidential statements have repeatedly moved markets by trillions of dollars, with algorithmic trading amplifying swings triggered by social media posts and public remarks.