Once again, Trump claims victory in Iran war, while Iran war drags on

It's becoming a familiar spectacle. Major stock-market index futures are down, with the S&P 500 set to open down 0.7% and the Dow down 300 points. With the market a few hours from its official open, Trump takes to Truth Social to make strongly worded victory-is-nigh claims about the war with Iran. At the same time, news reports point to a deepening quagmire with few or no viable off-ramps.

Thursday shows the pattern in action. Trump's early morning post claims the Iranians are "begging" for a deal — a claim he himself renders in scare quotes, perhaps inadvertently acknowledging its dubiousness, or seeking an easy way to walk it back if challenged — while characterizing Iran as having been “militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback.” At the same time, the biggest headline on the Wall Street Journal's website reads “Trump Tells Aides He Wants a Speedy End to the War.”

The story, posted late Wednesday night, tells a rather different tale from the president's. Trump has told close associates he wants the war brought to an end within just a few weeks — he's reportedly planned a mid-May summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the assumption the war will be over by then. But “the problem is Trump has no easy options for ending the war, and peace negotiations are at a nascent stage,” the WSJ reporting says. Iran has so far rejected direct talks; yesterday Iranian negotiators rejected a peace plan proffered by the U.S. through Pakistanis. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The U.S. is sending more troops to the region. Pete Hegseth, in a line that deserves to be read twice, told reporters this week that “We negotiate with bombs.” Meanwhile Trump says that news of the continuing war is fake news and that the war has already been won.

The WSJ also reports that Trump has privately told associates the war is “distracting from his other priorities” — the midterm elections, immigration enforcement, voter ID legislation — and has floated the idea of securing U.S. access to Iranian oil as part of any deal. One person close to Trump told the paper that the president “appears ready to shift to his next big challenge,” though nobody could say what that might be. Some allies are reportedly hoping he pivots to ousting Cuba's communist government.

Meanwhile Iran fired cruise missiles at the USS Abraham Lincoln yesterday, a drone struck a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, and a senior Iranian military official responded to Trump's deal talk by asking whether "the level of your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves."

The Iranians, in other words, do not appear to be begging.