Market fluctuates as Trump claims talks and Iran immediately denies it

In recent days, markets have painted a picture of textbook panic. Gold just posted its worst weekly drop since 1983, erasing all of its 2026 gains. Brent crude briefly topped $110 a barrel, up more than 50% since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began in late last month. Across the globe, bond values have fallen by over $2.5 trillion, with yields spiking in turn, suggesting that markets broadly expect a sharp increase in inflation.

The cause of the panic is not mysterious. Goldman Sachs $GS has called the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz the largest-ever “supply shock” to global crude markets. The IEA compared it to both 1970s oil crises and the 2022 Russia gas shock — combined.

As of 6:30 a.m. ET on Monday morning, stock futures were down around 1% as the risks and losses rippled through asset classes.

Then, a little after 7 a.m. ET, Trump posted on Truth Social, claiming in all caps that he is calling off a planned strike on Iranian power plants after what he described as "very good and productive" conversations regarding a "complete and total resolution of our hostilities" — and futures swung violently into the green, with the S&P moving upward as much as 2.6%. The Dow briefly appeared set to open about 900 points up.

The market doesn’t have to believe the talks occurred

Even at the moment of posting, there was little evidence that Trump's “talks” occurred, much less that a "complete and total" resolution was at hand. It's widely known that U.S. and Iranian officials have had little to no direct contact, but rather only messages relayed through third-party intermediaries.

One likely read is that Trump was walking back a threat that his own advisers considered unwise, or that was always a feint, or that was never seriously considered beyond the moment it was posted. Some combination of all three appears genuinely plausible. About 30 minutes after Trump's post, Iran's Foreign Ministry issued a statement denying it entirely. Iranian sources denied direct contact with Trump, period.

Still, some news reports repeated Trump's claims as facts, while later in the day, news organizations from Politico to the New York Times reported on possible talks, but caveated these stories heavily.

As likely, markets, in swinging upward on Monday, were reacting more to Trump walking back aggressive statements than firm belief that talks had occurred or are occurring. It's also in question whether any parties understood Trump's news was coming and positioned themselves to profit.

Trump's options narrowing as risks mount

As Bloomberg's Marc Champion has argued, Trump does have reason to pause now a moment to rethink his options, which appear to be narrowing. While Iran may be debilitated by missile attacks, the regime remains in control of a major global strategic asset, through which it’s able to partially paralyze the global economy — or “more bargaining leverage at this point than ... before the war” as Champion put it.

Meanwhile — whatever may be posted on Truth Social — risks are mounting across the U.S. market, whether in the form of stagflation, triple-digit oil, and a bond market in free fall combined with mortgage rates threatening 7%, all of which go a good ways toward explaining the morning's unusual market moves.