Tariff refunds: A $166 billion question

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The Trump administration has waged a controversial war against Iran for the past three weeks. It’s still caught in the middle of a separate, high-stakes fight involving its signature policy: tariffs.

It’s been nearly a month since the Supreme Court issued its decision striking down the majority of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Since then, the administration has been ensnared in a legal fight on whether it should return what’s been ruled as illegal tariff revenue back to the businesses that originally paid them. At least $166 billion in illegally-collected duties are at stake. 

At least 2,000 companies of all sizes have sued the Trump administration in hope of landing refunds — eventually. Some of them jumped in with lawsuits shortly after the Supreme Court nixed the tariffs, such as global shipping giant FedEx $FDX.

Yet businesses and consumers angling to get their money back shouldn’t bet on it anytime soon. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has indicated in legal filings that it will take at least another month to construct an administrative apparatus capable of processing refunds en masse, given it hasn’t handled an operation of this scale before.

“The jury is still out on how eagerly the government will cooperate with the refund process,” trade lawyer Adam Kunikowski wrote in a Substack post. “Early signs, however, are not promising.”

‘Corporate welfare’

Indeed, the Trump administration attacked returning the duties following the Supreme Court’s ruling, which didn’t address their status. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent assailed refunds as “corporate welfare” and suggested at one point that Americans won’t ever see that money. 

Trump similarly attacked the idea of refunds as an “undeserved windfall” that would benefit foreign companies and foreign governments. He has long presented his signature tariff policy as a powerful engine of revenue for the U.S. government.

The administration has tried buying more time to issue the refunds, which could be drawn-out and saddled with bureaucracy. Earlier this month, a federal judge ordered the White House to start laying the groundwork for speedy refunds, saying companies were entitled to their money back. 

The government responded in a March 6 legal filing it needed another 45 days to upgrade its systems to handle the enormous pool of refunds. Brandon Lord, a senior official at CBP's Office of Trade, estimated the amount to total $166 billion. The agency recorded 53 million entries spanning toys, furniture, clothes, autos and more that were subject to the tariffs. CBP had already been busy digitizing refund apparatus since January. The work, though, is far from complete.

“CBP is now facing an unprecedented volume of refunds,” CBP said in a March 6 filing to the Court of International Trade. “Its existing administrative procedures and technology are not well suited to a task of this scale and will require manual work.”

Critics argue that the Trump administration is dragging out the process. Still, it has not appealed the refund decision so far.

The legal back-and-forth is spurring a new wave of political attacks from Democrats eager to cast the Trump administration as purse-snatchers refusing to return Americans’ money. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer among other Democrats have pressed for refunds to start flowing, without a court order.

The tariff refund saga — which won’t end anytime soon — is also bound to put many CEOs in a tricky spot. Plenty of American consumers may come to expect they will recoup their money in some fashion once the refunds hit businesses’ financial accounts. Some already launched class action lawsuits against major companies like FedEx.

“I know some companies that will get IEEPA tariff refunds are considering coupons/discounts to customers as a goodwill gesture, given concerns that tariffs increased prices,” Peter Harrell, a trade expert at the Georgetown Law School Institute of International Economic Law, said on social media. “Offering workers a bonus is another way to address the political issues the refunds raise.”

In a floor speech earlier this month, Schumer demanded the Chamber of Commerce urge its member companies to pass savings on any refunds to American consumers. “When the tariffs hit, large companies often pass the buck over to their customers,” he said. “They’re the ones who are owed a refund.”

Only time will tell when those refunds will start flowing to businesses and the bureaucratic hurdles that could stand in the way.