Signs of a white-collar recession are everywhere

Slowing wage growth. Declining job openings. Unemployed workers giving away their LinkedIn passwords and forking over thousands of dollars per month for a shot at that elusive thing: a lucrative corporate job. Or just a job, period.

Beneath the headline employment numbers in BLS reports, the signs of a white-collar recession are mounting. Here's what to know.

Contracting white-collar growth

Last week’s jobs report showed key trends. According to the BLS, the economy added more than 130,000 jobs total, including 82,000 jobs added in health care and a further 42,000 in related care work — think nursing home staff, home health aides, and childcare workers.

But strip out those gains, and the picture that emerges is one of contraction, not underlying strength. Federal government employment (-34,000) fell. The same report also showed some white-collar fields — like financial services (-22,000) — seeing marked declines. Other white-collar categories simply stayed flat, neither growing nor contracting, even as corporate capex rises to historically unprecedented levels.

A decline in jobs openings, and a trend of 'reverse recruiting'

Recent data showing declines in white-collar job openings tells a similar story. Listings for roles in professional and business services appear to have fallen to their lowest level in more than a decade (excluding the deepest pandemic-era lows of 2020), the steepest declines of any sector.

There are now roughly 1.6 openings per 100 employees across professional and business services, a marked drop over recent years. The hiring rate has dropped to levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

Job searches now last an average of six months, federal data suggests. Some job seekers are even turning to “reverse recruiting,” paying headhunters steep monthly fees or salary commissions to take over their LinkedIn profiles and apply for roles on their behalf. It’s hardly a practice that would ever emerge in boom times.

Slowing wage growth across sectors

At the same time, wage growth is slowing.

The Employment Cost Index — a widely accepted proxy for whether compensation is growing or declining across sectors — points to weakening bargaining power for workers. The index rose 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025 from a year earlier, making for the slowest pace since early 2021 and only modestly above the rate of inflation.

Meanwhile, prices are rising, functioning to erode workers’ purchasing power. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that a range of companies, from clothing brands to appliance makers, are raising prices to reflect the cost of tariffs and ever-accelerating healthcare costs.

Adding it all up

Taken together, these signs and statistics point to a white-collar jobs market that’s growing ever tighter, even as compensation barely outpaces inflation. While the overall economy hasn’t yet met the technical definition of a recession, for jobseekers and “job huggers” the distinction may feel academic, even as far more visceral fears take hold.

On X $TWTR, the widely followed account Kobeissi Letter on Sunday analyzed recent data to determine that “the ratio of unemployed to job openings in the industry is down to 4.0%, nearly matching 2020 lows. This comes as total job openings in the sector are down -1.4 million since the March 2022 peak, to 1.0 million, the lowest since May 2020. Over the same period, the hiring rate is down -1.8 percentage points, to 4.2%, in line with levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis.”

Conclusion? “The US white-collar recession is accelerating.”