The White House warns staff against using secret info for prediction market bets

The White House warned staff against placing bets on prediction markets using nonpublic government information, according to an internal email sent March 24 by the White House Management Office.

CBS News obtained the email, which warned that ethics rules forbid government employees from using nonpublic information to benefit themselves or others financially, and spelled out that doing so to trade these contracts carries criminal penalties. Staff were told to contact the White House Counsel's Office for guidance.

The warning came one day after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social announcing a pause of strikes against Iran. About 15 minutes before that announcement, according to CBS News, a flurry of activity hit futures markets. According to Dow Jones Market Data, oil futures contracts totaling more than $760 million traded within a span of less than two minutes.

David Ingle, a White House spokesman, verified that the email was genuine and quoted Trump as saying he has been "crystal clear" that officials must not exploit nonpublic information for personal financial gain. Any reporting that implied White House officials had acted improperly was dismissed by Ingle as "baseless and irresponsible."

One senior administration official told The Wall Street Journal the email amounted to a well-timed "refresher," noting that unusual wagers in futures markets had become "hot in the news." The White House has said there is no evidence that anyone inside the administration used insider information to place well-timed wagers.

According to The Wall Street Journal, a cluster of three Polymarket accounts pulled in over $600,000 by placing accurate wagers on when the Iranian cease-fire would occur.

The episode has intensified a growing backlash against prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow users to bet on world events and cash out anonymously. Democrats in Congress have contended that the current regulatory framework leaves too many gaps, particularly given that large sums can be won on these platforms without any public disclosure. Legislation put forward last month by Sens. Richard Blumenthal and Andy Kim would prohibit prediction market contracts connected to armed conflict or military operations. Kim said "corruption and exploitation are thriving right now within the gaps and loopholes of prediction markets."

The Iran trades are not the first to raise concerns. A Polymarket account called "Magamyman" turned an $87,000 bet into more than $553,000 by wagering on U.S. strikes against Iran roughly 71 minutes before news of the attacks became public. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six accounts it described as suspected insiders that collectively netted $1.2 million on Polymarket ahead of the strikes. Earlier this year, a Polymarket bettor collected over $400,000 after wagering on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's ouster — a bet placed less than five hours before he was captured.

Prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Existing ethics regulations forbid federal employees from using government information to enrich themselves, and separate rules restrict gambling on federal grounds.